Ceasefire Watch
Monitoring fragile peace agreements and ceasefires that need to hold during the Olympic Truce
2025: A Year of Fragile Peace
The year 2025 has seen multiple conflict settlements and ceasefires announced across different regions. While these represent significant diplomatic achievements, many remain fragile and require sustained attention. The Milano-Cortina 2026 Olympic Truce (January 30 - March 22, 2026) provides a critical window to reinforce these agreements and demonstrate that peace can hold.
Note: Independent verification confirms involvement in several ceasefires, though analysts caution that some disputes were limited confrontations or remain partially unresolved.
Active Agreements & Ceasefires
Tracking peace processes that need to hold during the Olympic Truce window
Armenia – Azerbaijan
Peace agreement signed ending decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
Ceasefires since 2020, culminating in formal peace agreement
Truce relevance: Critical test of post-conflict reconciliation during Olympic Truce window
Israel – Hamas
Ceasefire and hostage-for-prisoner exchanges following extended conflict
Partial settlement after two-year conflict in Gaza
Truce relevance: Humanitarian corridors essential for aid delivery during Truce
Israel – Iran
Ceasefire following 12-day escalation after strikes on nuclear sites
Regional de-escalation following direct military confrontation
Truce relevance: Regional stability critical for broader Middle East peace
DR Congo – Rwanda
Treaty between the two nations addressing eastern DRC conflict
Diplomatic breakthrough after years of proxy conflicts
Truce relevance: Opportunity for humanitarian access improvement in eastern DRC
India – Pakistan
Ceasefire announced after escalating military confrontation
De-escalation following border tensions
Truce relevance: Nuclear de-escalation aligned with Olympic peace principles
Thailand – Cambodia
Ceasefire after five days of deadly border clashes
Border dispute de-escalation
Truce relevance: ASEAN regional stability important for broader peace
Serbia – Kosovo
Continued dialogue and ceasefire initiatives
EU-mediated normalization process
Truce relevance: European peace consolidation during Olympic period
Egypt – Ethiopia
Diplomatic resolution over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute
Water rights negotiations rather than military conflict
Truce relevance: Peaceful dispute resolution model
What We Monitor
Agreement Compliance
Whether parties are adhering to signed agreements, implementing provisions, and meeting timelines
Ceasefire Violations
Incidents of violence, military movements, or provocations that threaten fragile peace
Humanitarian Access
Whether peace allows for improved aid delivery, refugee returns, and civilian protection
Diplomatic Progress
Continued dialogue, negotiation milestones, and international mediation efforts
Connected to the Truce Compliance Index
Ceasefire compliance is a key factor in our assessment of how nations honor the Olympic Truce. Maintaining peace agreements during the Truce window demonstrates genuine commitment to the spirit of ekecheiria.